Roda 4-1 Dordrecht — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 9 Feb 2024

📅09/02/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.75
Draw
28%
3.94
Away
24%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.63
Over 2.5
52%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.43
No
46%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
6.15
2-3 Goals
39%
2.07
4-5 Goals
26%
2.52
6+ Goals
11%
5.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.22
1/2
6%
33.0
1/X
12%
13.5
X/1
16%
4.53
X/2
8%
8.64
X/X
7%
6.53
2/1 EV+ ✗
15%
19.15
2/2
11%
5.34
2/X
8%
13.65
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.15 — our 15% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
53%
-4.9pp
28%
Draw
22%
+5.7pp
24%
Away Win
25%
-0.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
34%
+13.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
66%
-13.6pp
54%
BTTS Yes
66%
-11.8pp
46%
BTTS No
34%
+11.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Roda EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Dordrecht EU Bookmakers 29%
+2% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -2%
1.67/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.77
+4% / +37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -23%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
356 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 372 · 80%
26.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
21.1 Crosses 17.6
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Roda
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Dordrecht
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.22 xG 0.99
57% Ball Possession 43%
21 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
412 Passes 280
84% Pass Accuracy 76%
32 Box Touches 13
23 Crosses 10
0 Yellow Cards 2
01.12.2023 Dordrecht Dordrecht 2-0 HT 1-0 Roda Roda HOL2
27.01.2023 Roda Roda 1-0 HT 0-0 Dordrecht Dordrecht HOL2
05.08.2022 Dordrecht Dordrecht 0-2 HT 0-2 Roda Roda HOL2
04.03.2022 Roda Roda 4-0 HT 2-0 Dordrecht Dordrecht HOL2
03.12.2021 Dordrecht Dordrecht 2-5 HT 1-1 Roda Roda HOL2
30.01.2021 Dordrecht Dordrecht 0-5 HT 0-3 Roda Roda HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Roda
4-1
AWAY Dordrecht
3.10 xG 0.73
41% Ball Possession 59%
22 Total Shots 11
9 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 2
216 Passes 367
70% Pass Accuracy 81%
25 Box Touches 18
14 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Roda vs Dordrecht
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Roda ran out comfortable winners over Dordrecht 4-1. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Roda as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Roda had 41% of the ball to Dordrecht's 59%, shots finished 22-11, expected goals 3.10 to 0.73.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Roda had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Roda and 0.67 for Dordrecht.

What was the final score of Roda vs Dordrecht?

Roda 4-1 Dordrecht in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 09/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Roda vs Dordrecht?

Before kick-off our model rated a Roda win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Roda 48%, draw 28%, Dordrecht 24%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Roda), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Roda) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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