NAC Breda 2-2 FC Eindhoven — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 9 Feb 2024

📅09/02/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.53
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
23%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.07
Over 2.5
56%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.76
No
46%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.92
2-3 Goals
41%
1.82
4-5 Goals
25%
3.09
6+ Goals
13%
10.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1.92
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
7%
15.8
X/1
22%
3.75
X/2
8%
11.15
X/X
9%
5.76
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
21.6
2/2
8%
8.52
2/X
8%
16.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.6 — our 9% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
61%
-7.9pp
24%
Draw
22%
+1.9pp
23%
Away Win
17%
+6.0pp
44%
Under 2.5
44%
-0.3pp
56%
Over 2.5
56%
+0.3pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+1.4pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NAC Breda EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Eindhoven EU Bookmakers 21%
+3% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -4%
1.63/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.84
+0% / +44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -10%
54% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
354 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 257 · 71%
28.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.6
23.0 Crosses 14.9
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NAC Breda
2W-2D-2L
AWAY FC Eindhoven
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.14 xG 1.09
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
415 Passes 251
78% Pass Accuracy 68%
22 Box Touches 14
26 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.08.2023 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven 2-0 HT 1-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
21.04.2023 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven 1-2 HT 1-1 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
10.01.2023 NAC Breda NAC Breda 2-1 HT 0-1 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven HOK
02.09.2022 NAC Breda NAC Breda 1-1 HT 1-1 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven HOL2
08.01.2022 NAC Breda NAC Breda 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven HOL2
24.09.2021 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven 2-0 HT 2-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NAC Breda
2-2
AWAY FC Eindhoven
0.68 xG 1.09
61% Ball Possession 39%
10 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 3
514 Passes 294
85% Pass Accuracy 78%
25 Box Touches 23
21 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NAC Breda and FC Eindhoven couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was NAC Breda at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, NAC Breda had 61% of the ball to FC Eindhoven's 39%, shots finished 10-13, expected goals 0.68 to 1.09.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for NAC Breda and 1.17 for FC Eindhoven.

What was the final score of NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven?

NAC Breda 2-2 FC Eindhoven in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 09/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven?

Before kick-off our model rated a NAC Breda win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split NAC Breda 53%, draw 24%, FC Eindhoven 23%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (NAC Breda) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (NAC Breda) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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