Luzern 3-2 Winterthur — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 9 Feb 2025

📅09/02/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.53
Draw
25%
4.08
Away
23%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.23
Over 2.5
58%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.68
No
45%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.55
2-3 Goals
39%
1.93
4-5 Goals
29%
2.93
6+ Goals
12%
8.41
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.89
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
15.1
X/1
14%
4.16
X/2
9%
11.35
X/X
8%
6.32
2/1
9%
20.25
2/2
9%
8.72
2/X EV+ ✗
9%
16.9
Value flag · 2/X at 16.9 — our 9% vs market 3.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
61%
-9.6pp
26%
Draw
21%
+4.3pp
23%
Away Win
18%
+5.3pp
42%
Under 2.5
41%
+1.3pp
58%
Over 2.5
59%
-1.3pp
55%
BTTS Yes
56%
-0.4pp
45%
BTTS No
44%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Luzern EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Winterthur EU Bookmakers 21%
-12% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -8%
1.67/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.81
-29% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -12%
53% Ball Possession 47%
18 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
358 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 75%
29.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
25.4 Crosses 10.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Luzern
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Winterthur
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
2.07 xG 0.81
48% Ball Possession 52%
17 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
309 Passes 344
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
29 Box Touches 22
20 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
14.12.2024 Winterthur Winterthur 3-4 HT 3-2 Luzern Luzern İSV
24.08.2024 Luzern Luzern 3-0 HT 1-0 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
11.02.2024 Winterthur Winterthur 2-1 HT 0-1 Luzern Luzern İSV
25.11.2023 Luzern Luzern 3-1 HT 1-0 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
22.07.2023 Winterthur Winterthur 0-0 HT 0-0 Luzern Luzern İSV
27.04.2023 Luzern Luzern 3-1 HT 1-1 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Luzern
3-2
AWAY Winterthur
2.65 xG 2.80
58% Ball Possession 42%
24 Total Shots 14
11 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
415 Passes 276
82% Pass Accuracy 75%
51 Box Touches 21
20 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Luzern vs Winterthur
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Luzern nicked a narrow win over Winterthur 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Luzern as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Luzern had 58% of the ball to Winterthur's 42%, shots finished 24-14, expected goals 2.65 to 2.80.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Luzern had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Luzern and 1.17 for Winterthur.

What was the final score of Luzern vs Winterthur?

Luzern 3-2 Winterthur in the Switzerland - Super League on 09/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Luzern vs Winterthur?

Before kick-off our model rated a Luzern win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Luzern 52%, draw 26%, Winterthur 23%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Luzern), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Luzern) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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