FC Juarez 2-1 Monterrey — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 9 Feb 2025

📅09/02/2025 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.46
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
43%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.95
Over 2.5
49%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.34
2-3 Goals
38%
1.75
4-5 Goals
22%
3.21
6+ Goals
12%
11.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.34 — our 28% vs market 23.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
8%
X/2
17%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
18%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
25%
+2.7pp
29%
Draw
25%
+3.5pp
43%
Away Win
49%
-6.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.2pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Juarez EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Monterrey EU Bookmakers 54%
-3% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +6%
1.02/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.07
-9% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +13%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
280 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 368 · 82%
15.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
16.1 Crosses 19.1
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Juarez
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Monterrey
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
0.93 xG 1.97
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
295 Passes 389
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.09.2024 Monterrey Monterrey 3-2 HT 1-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
24.02.2024 FC Juarez FC Juarez 0-3 HT 0-0 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
08.10.2023 Monterrey Monterrey 3-1 HT 2-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
05.03.2023 Monterrey Monterrey 3-0 HT 1-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
10.09.2022 FC Juarez FC Juarez 0-1 HT 0-0 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
16.03.2022 Monterrey Monterrey 3-0 HT 0-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Juarez
2-1
AWAY Monterrey
1.33 xG 1.81
38% Ball Possession 62%
9 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 3
228 Passes 403
76% Pass Accuracy 84%
11 Box Touches 29
16 Crosses 26
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH FC Juarez vs Monterrey
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Juarez squeezed past Monterrey 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Monterrey at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, FC Juarez had 38% of the ball to Monterrey's 62%, shots finished 9-19, expected goals 1.33 to 1.81 — on chances, Monterrey could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monterrey led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for FC Juarez and 2.67 for Monterrey.

What was the final score of FC Juarez vs Monterrey?

FC Juarez 2-1 Monterrey in the Mexico - Primera on 09/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Juarez vs Monterrey?

Before kick-off our model rated an Monterrey win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split FC Juarez 28%, draw 29%, Monterrey 43%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Monterrey), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Monterrey) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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