Alianza Lima vs Comerciantes Unidos Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Alianza Lima v Comerciantes Unidos — Team-Based Signals
Alianza Lima vs Comerciantes Unidos Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 0-0
Alianza Lima
PER
5-1
HT 2-1
Comerciantes Unidos
PER
Alianza Lima 2-1 Comerciantes Unidos — Actual Match Statistics
Alianza Lima squeezed past Comerciantes Unidos 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Alianza Lima as the likeliest winner at 69%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.
On the day, Alianza Lima had 68% of the ball to Comerciantes Unidos's 32%, shots finished 21-6, expected goals 2.89 to 0.29 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Alianza Lima's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alianza Lima had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Alianza Lima and 0.67 for Comerciantes Unidos.
What was the final score of Alianza Lima vs Comerciantes Unidos?
Alianza Lima 2-1 Comerciantes Unidos in the Peru - Premier League on 09/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Alianza Lima vs Comerciantes Unidos?
Before kick-off our model rated a Alianza Lima win the most likely single outcome at about 69%, with the full match-result split Alianza Lima 69%, draw 20%, Comerciantes Unidos 11%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Alianza Lima), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.