Aveley 0-2 Weymouth — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 9 Mar 2024

📅09/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.05
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
31%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.91
Over 2.5
47%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.42
2-3 Goals
34%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
3.47
6+ Goals
12%
13.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.42 — our 31% vs market 23.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
11%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
14%
X/X
18%
2/1
5%
2/2
6%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
45%
-5.3pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.2pp
31%
Away Win
29%
+2.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-5.0pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aveley EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Weymouth EU Bookmakers 32%
+16% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -5%
2.26/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.35
+47% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +4%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
333 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aveley
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Weymouth
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
25.11.2023 Weymouth Weymouth 1-1 HT 0-1 Aveley Aveley İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aveley
0-2
AWAY Weymouth
62% Ball Possession 38%
12 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 5
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Aveley vs Weymouth
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Weymouth saw off Aveley 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 29% / 31% — and on the day Weymouth made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Aveley had 62% of the ball to Weymouth's 38%, shots finished 12-12.

What was the final score of Aveley vs Weymouth?

Aveley 0-2 Weymouth in the England - Conference on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aveley vs Weymouth?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aveley win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Aveley 39%, draw 29%, Weymouth 31%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Aveley) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Aveley) ✓ Under 2.5
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