Modena 2-3 FeralpiSalo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 9 Mar 2024

📅09/03/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.89
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
27%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.6
Over 2.5
39%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.03
No
59%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.52
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.7
6+ Goals
8%
26.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.52 — our 35% vs market 33.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.6
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.7
X/1
16%
4.04
X/2
9%
7.97
X/X
12%
4.03
2/1
7%
28.5
2/2
10%
6.73
2/X
8%
15.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
49%
-3.4pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.6pp
27%
Away Win
23%
+3.9pp
61%
Under 2.5
59%
+2.6pp
39%
Over 2.5
41%
-2.5pp
41%
BTTS Yes
45%
-4.6pp
59%
BTTS No
55%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Modena EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY FeralpiSalo EU Bookmakers 26%
+5% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
1.23/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.63/1.64
+7% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +23%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
347 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 74%
26.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
21.4 Crosses 14.6
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Modena
1W-3D-1L
AWAY FeralpiSalo
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
0.96 xG 0.71
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
402 Passes 246
85% Pass Accuracy 75%
39 Box Touches 16
24 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 2
16.09.2023 FeralpiSalo FeralpiSalo 1-1 HT 1-1 Modena Modena İTB
18.02.2021 FeralpiSalo FeralpiSalo 0-1 HT 0-0 Modena Modena İTC
21.10.2020 Modena Modena 0-0 HT 0-0 FeralpiSalo FeralpiSalo İTC
02.02.2020 FeralpiSalo FeralpiSalo 2-1 HT 2-1 Modena Modena İTC
21.09.2019 Modena Modena 1-1 HT 1-1 FeralpiSalo FeralpiSalo İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Modena
2-3
AWAY FeralpiSalo
2.52 xG 2.11
55% Ball Possession 45%
21 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
316 Passes 263
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
40 Box Touches 17
27 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Modena vs FeralpiSalo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FeralpiSalo squeezed past Modena 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Modena at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Modena had 55% of the ball to FeralpiSalo's 45%, shots finished 21-14, expected goals 2.52 to 2.11 — on chances, Modena could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for Modena and 0.80 for FeralpiSalo.

What was the final score of Modena vs FeralpiSalo?

Modena 2-3 FeralpiSalo in the Italy - Serie B on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Modena vs FeralpiSalo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Modena win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Modena 46%, draw 28%, FeralpiSalo 27%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Modena) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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