Spezia 2-1 Südtirol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 9 Mar 2024

Spezia
2-1 HT 1-1
Südtirol
📅09/03/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Italy - Serie B – 2023/2024

Spezia vs Südtirol Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.05
Draw
31%
2.88
Away
30%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.45
Over 2.5
41%
2.61
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.27
No
53%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.07
2-3 Goals
42%
1.83
4-5 Goals
17%
6.25
6+ Goals
9%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.98
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.75
X/1
12%
4.22
X/2
9%
7.31
X/X
12%
3.34
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
15%
6.47
2/X
10%
15.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
45%
-5.6pp
31%
Draw
31%
-0.1pp
30%
Away Win
24%
+5.7pp
59%
Under 2.5
65%
-6.3pp
41%
Over 2.5
35%
+6.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
40%
+6.5pp
53%
BTTS No
60%
-6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Spezia v Südtirol — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Spezia EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Südtirol EU Bookmakers 28%
-1% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +9%
1.32/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.04
-9% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / +40%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
312 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 71%
25.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
24.6 Crosses 17.2
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.5

Spezia vs Südtirol Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Spezia
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Südtirol
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
0.89 xG 2.78
67% Ball Possession 33%
17 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 2
610 Passes 250
90% Pass Accuracy 76%
16 Box Touches 23
15 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
20.08.2023 Südtirol Südtirol 3-3 HT 1-2 Spezia Spezia İTB

Spezia 2-1 Südtirol — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Spezia
2-1
AWAY Südtirol
1.31 xG 1.30
37% Ball Possession 63%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 6
217 Passes 418
72% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 21
15 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Spezia vs Südtirol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Spezia edged past Südtirol 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 31% / 30%) promised a tight game; Spezia found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Spezia had 37% of the ball to Südtirol's 63%, shots finished 12-10, expected goals 1.31 to 1.30.

What was the final score of Spezia vs Südtirol?

Spezia 2-1 Südtirol in the Italy - Serie B on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Spezia vs Südtirol?

Before kick-off our model rated a Spezia win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Spezia 39%, draw 31%, Südtirol 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Spezia) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Spezia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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