Alverca 1-0 Sporting Covilha — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 9 Mar 2024

📅09/03/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.96
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
28%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.62
Over 2.5
43%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.99
No
52%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
14%
X/X
13%
2/1
9%
2/2
7%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
47%
-2.8pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.0pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+2.0pp
57%
Under 2.5
58%
-1.1pp
43%
Over 2.5
42%
+1.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
46%
+1.5pp
52%
BTTS No
54%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alverca EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Covilha EU Bookmakers 29%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +14%
1.36/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/0.82
+7% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +55%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
394 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 245 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alverca
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Sporting Covilha
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 2
16.12.2023 Alverca Alverca 2-2 HT 0-1 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POR3
03.09.2023 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 1-2 HT 0-1 Alverca Alverca POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alverca
1-0
AWAY Sporting Covilha
61% Ball Possession 39%
8 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 5
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Alverca vs Sporting Covilha
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alverca nicked a narrow win over Sporting Covilha 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Alverca as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Alverca had 61% of the ball to Sporting Covilha's 39%, shots finished 8-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Alverca had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Alverca and 1.50 for Sporting Covilha.

What was the final score of Alverca vs Sporting Covilha?

Alverca 1-0 Sporting Covilha in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alverca vs Sporting Covilha?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alverca win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Alverca 44%, draw 28%, Sporting Covilha 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Alverca), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Alverca) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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