Ponferradina 2-0 Ourense CF — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 9 Mar 2025

📅09/03/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.75
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
26%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.52
Over 2.5
46%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.29
No
50%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.18
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
19%
5.01
6+ Goals
12%
31.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
18%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
54%
-7.7pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.9pp
26%
Away Win
20%
+6.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
62%
-8.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
38%
+8.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
40%
+10.0pp
50%
BTTS No
60%
-10.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ponferradina EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Ourense CF EU Bookmakers 22%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
1.53/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.37
-5% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +3%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
401 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 194 · 66%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ponferradina
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Ourense CF
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
62% Ball Possession 38%
9 Total Shots 5
7 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
30.11.2024 Ourense CF Ourense CF 2-1 HT 1-0 Ponferradina Ponferradina İS3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ponferradina
2-0
AWAY Ourense CF
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ponferradina vs Ourense CF
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ponferradina beat Ourense CF 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Ponferradina as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Ponferradina had 48% of the ball to Ourense CF's 52%, shots finished 11-11.

What was the final score of Ponferradina vs Ourense CF?

Ponferradina 2-0 Ourense CF in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 09/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ponferradina vs Ourense CF?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ponferradina win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Ponferradina 46%, draw 28%, Ourense CF 26%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ponferradina), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ponferradina) ✓ Under 2.5
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