Real Salt Lake 1-3 San Diego — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 9 Mar 2025

📅09/03/2025 · 🕒05:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.75
Draw
29%
3.64
Away
26%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.91
Over 2.5
52%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.76
No
46%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.28
2-3 Goals
43%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
3.26
6+ Goals
10%
12.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.31
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.05
X/1
22%
4.29
X/2
12%
8.76
X/X
10%
5.12
2/1
5%
23.0
2/2
9%
6.88
2/X EV+ ✗
10%
15.4
Value flag · 2/X at 15.4 — our 10% vs market 3.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
53%
-8.0pp
29%
Draw
24%
+4.5pp
26%
Away Win
23%
+3.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.3pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.3pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+1.6pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Salt Lake EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY San Diego EU Bookmakers 26%
+2% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+15% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
390 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 74%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
18.8 Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Salt Lake
1-3
AWAY San Diego
2.09 xG 2.65
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 6
388 Passes 433
83% Pass Accuracy 85%
17 Box Touches 29
6 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Real Salt Lake vs San Diego
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

San Diego beat Real Salt Lake 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Real Salt Lake at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Real Salt Lake had 47% of the ball to San Diego's 53%, shots finished 13-15, expected goals 2.09 to 2.65.

What was the final score of Real Salt Lake vs San Diego?

Real Salt Lake 1-3 San Diego in the USA - Major League on 09/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Salt Lake vs San Diego?

Before kick-off our model rated a Real Salt Lake win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Real Salt Lake 45%, draw 29%, San Diego 26%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Real Salt Lake) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Real Salt Lake) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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