New York City FC 2-1 Orlando City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 9 Mar 2025

📅09/03/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.25
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
39%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.03
Over 2.5
51%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.6
No
47%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.67
2-3 Goals
35%
1.78
4-5 Goals
25%
3.01
6+ Goals
13%
9.89
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.29
1/2
7%
28.0
1/X
8%
12.15
X/1
14%
5.52
X/2
13%
6.39
X/X
9%
4.9
2/1
6%
24.7
2/2
19%
4.14
2/X
9%
12.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
40%
-5.2pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.2pp
39%
Away Win
33%
+6.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
45%
+3.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
55%
-3.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.6pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New York City FC EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Orlando City EU Bookmakers 37%
-8% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +26%
1.61/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.19
-15% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +13%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
360 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 79%
28.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
17.5 Crosses 14.9
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New York City FC
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Orlando City
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.49 xG 1.06
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
386 Passes 362
85% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Box Touches 18
11 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
21.07.2024 Orlando City Orlando City 1-1 HT 0-0 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
29.06.2024 New York City FC New York City FC 4-2 HT 3-0 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
21.09.2023 New York City FC New York City FC 2-0 HT 1-0 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
18.05.2023 Orlando City Orlando City 1-1 HT 1-0 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
02.10.2022 New York City FC New York City FC 2-1 HT 0-0 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
29.08.2022 Orlando City Orlando City 2-1 HT 1-0 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New York City FC
2-1
AWAY Orlando City
2.58 xG 1.42
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 15
9 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
363 Passes 294
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
29 Box Touches 28
23 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH New York City FC vs Orlando City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

New York City FC edged past Orlando City 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (35% / 26% / 39%) promised a tight game; New York City FC found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, New York City FC had 55% of the ball to Orlando City's 45%, shots finished 16-15, expected goals 2.58 to 1.42.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, New York City FC had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for New York City FC and 1.17 for Orlando City.

What was the final score of New York City FC vs Orlando City?

New York City FC 2-1 Orlando City in the USA - Major League on 09/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New York City FC vs Orlando City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Orlando City win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split New York City FC 35%, draw 26%, Orlando City 39%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Orlando City) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Orlando City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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