FC Cincinnati 2-0 Toronto FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 9 Mar 2025

📅09/03/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.64
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
26%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.95
Over 2.5
50%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.81
No
51%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.35
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
24%
3.21
6+ Goals
9%
11.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.35 — our 27% vs market 23.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.08
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.25
X/1
16%
4.18
X/2
6%
10.25
X/X
11%
5.23
2/1
9%
23.0
2/2
14%
8.24
2/X
6%
16.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
57%
-8.9pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.9pp
26%
Away Win
19%
+6.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.6pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Cincinnati EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Toronto FC EU Bookmakers 22%
+1% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.81/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.75
-12% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -6%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
360 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 77%
28.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
13.8 Crosses 11.2
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Cincinnati
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Toronto FC
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.17 xG 1.02
48% Ball Possession 52%
16 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
349 Passes 384
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
28 Box Touches 22
13 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.05.2024 Toronto FC Toronto FC 3-4 HT 1-0 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
25.02.2024 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 0-0 HT 0-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
01.10.2023 Toronto FC Toronto FC 2-3 HT 2-2 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
22.06.2023 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 3-0 HT 1-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
05.05.2022 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 2-0 HT 1-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
30.04.2022 Toronto FC Toronto FC 1-2 HT 0-1 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Cincinnati
2-0
AWAY Toronto FC
1.64 xG 0.25
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 4
461 Passes 326
88% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Box Touches 8
15 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH FC Cincinnati vs Toronto FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Cincinnati beat Toronto FC 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had FC Cincinnati as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, FC Cincinnati had 56% of the ball to Toronto FC's 44%, shots finished 12-6, expected goals 1.64 to 0.25.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Cincinnati had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for FC Cincinnati and 1.00 for Toronto FC.

What was the final score of FC Cincinnati vs Toronto FC?

FC Cincinnati 2-0 Toronto FC in the USA - Major League on 09/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Cincinnati vs Toronto FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Cincinnati win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split FC Cincinnati 48%, draw 26%, Toronto FC 26%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Cincinnati), BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (FC Cincinnati) ✓ BTTS No
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