Ajax (K) 5-1 Heerenveen (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Women's Eredivisie, 9 Mar 2025

Ajax (K)
5-1 HT 3-0
Heerenveen (K)
📅09/03/2025 · 🕒14:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 4-0 ✗
Netherlands - Women's Eredivisie – 2025/2026

Ajax (K) vs Heerenveen (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.16
Draw
19%
7.78
Away
20%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
Over 2.5
56%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
No
62%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
3%
1/X
4%
X/1
25%
X/2
9%
X/X
8%
2/1
3%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
82%
-22.1pp
19%
Draw
10%
+8.7pp
20%
Away Win
7%
+13.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ajax (K) v Heerenveen (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ajax (K) EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Heerenveen (K) EU Bookmakers 9%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
3.45/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.66/2.17
+31% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +31%
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
438 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 179 · 72%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
11.1 Crosses 14.0
0.7 Yellow Cards 1.8

Ajax (K) vs Heerenveen (K) Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ajax (K)
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Heerenveen (K)
3.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
73% Ball Possession 27%
31 Total Shots 4
13 Shots on Target 3
11 Corners 2
437 Passes 194
78% Pass Accuracy 62%
24 Crosses 7
0 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
15.12.2024 Heerenveen (K) Heerenveen (K) 1-4 HT 1-1 Ajax (K) Ajax (K) HOLK1
31.03.2024 Heerenveen (K) Heerenveen (K) 2-1 HT 0-1 Ajax (K) Ajax (K) HOLK1
14.02.2024 Ajax (K) Ajax (K) 5-1 HT 3-0 Heerenveen (K) Heerenveen (K) HOLK1

Ajax (K) 5-1 Heerenveen (K) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ajax (K)
5-1
AWAY Heerenveen (K)
60% Ball Possession 40%
25 Total Shots 5
15 Shots on Target 3
11 Corners 1
423 Passes 233
85% Pass Accuracy 70%
20 Crosses 4
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ajax (K) vs Heerenveen (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ajax (K) ran out comfortable winners over Heerenveen (K) 5-1. Half-time: 3-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Ajax (K) as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (56%) landed while no to both teams scoring (62%) missed.

On the day, Ajax (K) had 60% of the ball to Heerenveen (K)'s 40%, shots finished 25-5.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Ajax (K) had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 3.33 goals for Ajax (K) and 1.33 for Heerenveen (K).

What was the final score of Ajax (K) vs Heerenveen (K)?

Ajax (K) 5-1 Heerenveen (K) in the Netherlands - Women's Eredivisie on 09/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ajax (K) vs Heerenveen (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ajax (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Ajax (K) 60%, draw 19%, Heerenveen (K) 20%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ajax (K)), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ajax (K)) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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