Celaya 1-0 Monarcas Morelia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 9 Mar 2025

📅09/03/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.49
Draw
22%
4.08
Away
16%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.07
Over 2.5
56%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.81
No
48%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
25%
X/2
6%
X/X
9%
2/1
10%
2/2
6%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
63%
-0.6pp
22%
Draw
21%
+0.4pp
17%
Away Win
16%
+0.2pp
44%
Under 2.5
44%
-0.2pp
56%
Over 2.5
56%
+0.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.0pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Celaya EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Monarcas Morelia EU Bookmakers 20%
-1% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.83/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.82/1.99
-7% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -12%
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
372 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Celaya
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Monarcas Morelia
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
03.10.2024 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia 2-0 HT 1-0 Celaya Celaya MEK2
22.03.2024 Celaya Celaya 1-2 HT 1-0 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia MEK2
07.08.2023 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia 1-0 HT 0-0 Celaya Celaya MEK2
15.05.2023 Celaya Celaya 1-3 HT 1-0 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia MEK2
12.05.2023 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia 1-1 HT 1-0 Celaya Celaya MEK2
03.04.2023 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia 3-2 HT 1-1 Celaya Celaya MEK2
POST-MATCH Celaya vs Monarcas Morelia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Celaya edged past Monarcas Morelia 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Celaya as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monarcas Morelia led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Celaya and 2.00 for Monarcas Morelia.

What was the final score of Celaya vs Monarcas Morelia?

Celaya 1-0 Monarcas Morelia in the Mexico - Primera A on 09/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Celaya vs Monarcas Morelia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Celaya win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Celaya 62%, draw 22%, Monarcas Morelia 17%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Celaya) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Celaya) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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