Kallithea 2-1 PAOK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Super League, 9 Mar 2025

📅09/03/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
5.34
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
52%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.97
Over 2.5
49%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.88
No
53%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.44
2-3 Goals
42%
1.76
4-5 Goals
22%
3.14
6+ Goals
9%
11.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.44 — our 27% vs market 22.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
10.2
1/2
5%
22.55
1/X
7%
18.5
X/1
8%
12.1
X/2
14%
3.92
X/X
9%
5.77
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
33%
1.85
2/X
8%
16.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
16%
+8.1pp
24%
Draw
22%
+1.3pp
52%
Away Win
62%
-9.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
47%
+4.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
53%
-4.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.2pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kallithea EU Bookmakers 19%
Head to Head
AWAY PAOK EU Bookmakers 66%
+18% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +19%
0.65/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.74/0.78
-99% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / -6%
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
244 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 444 · 84%
15.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.9
7.0 Crosses 18.1
3.0 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kallithea
0W-3D-3L
AWAY PAOK
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.03 xG 1.46
38% Ball Possession 62%
7 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
235 Passes 415
75% Pass Accuracy 83%
8 Box Touches 31
8 Crosses 29
5 Yellow Cards 1
01.12.2024 PAOK PAOK 2-2 HT 1-0 Kallithea Kallithea YUN
26.03.2006 PAOK PAOK 2-1 HT 0-0 Kallithea Kallithea YUN
20.11.2005 Kallithea Kallithea 1-1 HT 0-1 PAOK PAOK YUN
20.02.2005 PAOK PAOK 3-1 HT 1-1 Kallithea Kallithea YUN
17.10.2004 Kallithea Kallithea 1-1 HT 0-0 PAOK PAOK YUN
14.03.2004 Kallithea Kallithea 0-1 HT 0-1 PAOK PAOK YUN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kallithea
2-1
AWAY PAOK
2.71 xG 1.83
29% Ball Possession 71%
16 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 7
159 Passes 496
68% Pass Accuracy 87%
27 Box Touches 21
12 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Kallithea vs PAOK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kallithea edged past PAOK 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was PAOK at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Kallithea had 29% of the ball to PAOK's 71%, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 2.71 to 1.83.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, PAOK led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Kallithea and 1.67 for PAOK.

What was the final score of Kallithea vs PAOK?

Kallithea 2-1 PAOK in the Greece - Super League on 09/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kallithea vs PAOK?

Before kick-off our model rated an PAOK win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Kallithea 24%, draw 24%, PAOK 52%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (PAOK) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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