Millwall 1-0 Leicester City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 9 Apr 2024

📅09/04/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
4.13
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
50%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.8
Over 2.5
50%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.9
No
52%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.1
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.78
6+ Goals
10%
16.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.1 — our 27% vs market 26.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
7.67
1/2
9%
24.85
1/X
7%
16.1
X/1
10%
9.39
X/2
14%
3.84
X/X
9%
4.78
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
28%
2.23
2/X
7%
15.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
21%
+5.5pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.8pp
50%
Away Win
55%
-4.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
52%
-1.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
48%
+1.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.8pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Millwall EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Leicester City EU Bookmakers 59%
-2% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +15%
0.93/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/0.92
-27% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / +38%
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
258 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 404 · 79%
17.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.7
17.2 Crosses 11.6
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Millwall
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Leicester City
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.20 xG 1.91
34% Ball Possession 66%
12 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
224 Passes 559
69% Pass Accuracy 87%
21 Box Touches 24
19 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
06.01.2024 Millwall Millwall 2-3 HT 0-2 Leicester City Leicester City FAK
13.12.2023 Leicester City Leicester City 3-2 HT 0-1 Millwall Millwall İNCL
22.09.2021 Millwall Millwall 0-2 HT 0-0 Leicester City Leicester City İNLK
18.02.2017 Millwall Millwall 1-0 HT 0-0 Leicester City Leicester City FAK
01.01.2014 Millwall Millwall 1-3 HT 0-1 Leicester City Leicester City İNCL
30.11.2013 Leicester City Leicester City 3-0 HT 1-0 Millwall Millwall İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Millwall
1-0
AWAY Leicester City
0.50 xG 0.94
28% Ball Possession 72%
6 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 9
157 Passes 559
67% Pass Accuracy 86%
8 Box Touches 32
18 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Millwall vs Leicester City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Millwall squeezed past Leicester City 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Leicester City at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Millwall had 28% of the ball to Leicester City's 72%, shots finished 6-11, expected goals 0.50 to 0.94 — on chances, Leicester City could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leicester City led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Millwall and 2.33 for Leicester City.

What was the final score of Millwall vs Leicester City?

Millwall 1-0 Leicester City in the England - Championship on 09/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Millwall vs Leicester City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Leicester City win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Millwall 26%, draw 23%, Leicester City 50%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Leicester City) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Leicester City) ✓ BTTS No
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