Matsumoto Yamaga 0-2 Albirex Niigata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - League Cup, 9 Apr 2025

📅09/04/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
19%
4.65
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
54%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.68
Over 2.5
42%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.03
No
63%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
5%
X/2
15%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
33%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
19%
Home Win
19%
+0.5pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.6pp
54%
Away Win
55%
-1.0pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.6pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.6pp
37%
BTTS Yes
45%
-8.5pp
63%
BTTS No
55%
+8.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Albirex Niigata EU Bookmakers 59%
+24% / +24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -14%
0.98/0.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.00
-18% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -46% / -11%
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
298 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Albirex Niigata
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 0
07.11.2021 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 1-1 HT 1-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP2
09.05.2021 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 0-0 HT 0-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP2
06.12.2020 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 3-1 HT 1-1 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP2
11.07.2020 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 1-0 HT 1-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP2
17.10.2015 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 2-0 HT 0-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP
03.06.2015 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 0-3 HT 0-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga
0-2
AWAY Albirex Niigata
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Matsumoto Yamaga vs Albirex Niigata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Albirex Niigata beat Matsumoto Yamaga 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Albirex Niigata as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (63%) came in.

On the day, Matsumoto Yamaga had 43% of the ball to Albirex Niigata's 57%, shots finished 10-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Albirex Niigata led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Matsumoto Yamaga and 1.33 for Albirex Niigata.

What was the final score of Matsumoto Yamaga vs Albirex Niigata?

Matsumoto Yamaga 0-2 Albirex Niigata in the Japan - League Cup on 09/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Albirex Niigata?

Before kick-off our model rated an Albirex Niigata win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Matsumoto Yamaga 19%, draw 26%, Albirex Niigata 54%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Albirex Niigata), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Albirex Niigata) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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