Sporting Charleroi 4-3 Westerlo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 9 May 2025

📅09/05/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.64
Draw
23%
3.94
Away
26%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.59
Over 2.5
60%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.5
No
42%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.54
2-3 Goals
38%
2.03
4-5 Goals
29%
2.59
6+ Goals
13%
5.93
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.1
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
10%
13.8
X/1
15%
4.61
X/2
11%
9.94
X/X
8%
6.74
2/1 EV+ ✓
12%
19.15
2/2
8%
6.76
2/X
5%
15.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.15 — our 12% vs market 3.0%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
57%
-5.7pp
23%
Draw
22%
+1.4pp
26%
Away Win
21%
+4.3pp
40%
Under 2.5
35%
+5.3pp
60%
Over 2.5
65%
-5.3pp
58%
BTTS Yes
62%
-4.7pp
42%
BTTS No
38%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Charleroi EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Westerlo EU Bookmakers 25%
+6% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -9%
1.80/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.96
-2% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -9%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
402 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 78%
27.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.4
20.4 Crosses 15.6
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Charleroi
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Westerlo
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.61 xG 1.32
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
352 Passes 369
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
25 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
11.04.2025 Westerlo Westerlo 2-2 HT 1-1 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi BEL
22.02.2025 Westerlo Westerlo 1-3 HT 1-0 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi BEL
09.11.2024 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi 1-0 HT 0-0 Westerlo Westerlo BEL
01.03.2024 Westerlo Westerlo 0-1 HT 0-0 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi BEL
25.11.2023 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi 3-2 HT 0-1 Westerlo Westerlo BEL
01.04.2023 Westerlo Westerlo 2-3 HT 1-2 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi BEL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Charleroi
4-3
AWAY Westerlo
3.17 xG 1.99
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
355 Passes 282
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
30 Box Touches 25
10 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Sporting Charleroi vs Westerlo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Charleroi nicked a narrow win over Westerlo 4-3. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Sporting Charleroi as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Sporting Charleroi had 55% of the ball to Westerlo's 45%, shots finished 17-13, expected goals 3.17 to 1.99.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting Charleroi had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Sporting Charleroi and 1.17 for Westerlo.

What was the final score of Sporting Charleroi vs Westerlo?

Sporting Charleroi 4-3 Westerlo in the Belgium - Pro League on 09/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Charleroi vs Westerlo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Charleroi win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Sporting Charleroi 51%, draw 23%, Westerlo 26%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting Charleroi), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sporting Charleroi) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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