Leon 2-3 Cruz Azul — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 9 May 2025

Leon
2-3 HT 1-3
Cruz Azul
📅09/05/2025 · 🕒06:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2024/2025

Leon vs Cruz Azul Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
3.17
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
37%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.62
Over 2.5
39%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.95
No
59%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.46
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals
19%
4.43
6+ Goals
9%
23.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
5.46
1/2
7%
30.0
1/X
5%
14.7
X/1 EV+ ✗
18%
6.81
X/2
11%
4.73
X/X
13%
4.05
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
19%
3.12
2/X
9%
13.95
Value flag · X/1 at 6.81 — our 18% vs market 11.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
28%
+8.0pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.3pp
37%
Away Win
43%
-6.7pp
61%
Under 2.5
58%
+3.3pp
39%
Over 2.5
42%
-3.3pp
41%
BTTS Yes
47%
-6.1pp
59%
BTTS No
53%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Leon v Cruz Azul — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leon EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Cruz Azul EU Bookmakers 48%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +16%
1.24/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/1.25
+7% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -9%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
274 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 78%
19.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.4
19.1 Crosses 18.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.5

Leon vs Cruz Azul Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leon
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Cruz Azul
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.87 xG 1.83
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
324 Passes 346
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
16 Box Touches 26
19 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
16.04.2025 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 2-1 HT 0-0 Leon Leon MEK
15.09.2024 Leon Leon 1-2 HT 1-1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
22.02.2024 Leon Leon 2-3 HT 0-2 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
29.10.2023 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 1-0 HT 1-0 Leon Leon MEK
09.04.2023 Leon Leon 0-0 HT 0-0 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
09.10.2022 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 1-0 HT 0-0 Leon Leon MEK

Leon 2-3 Cruz Azul — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leon
2-3
AWAY Cruz Azul
1.38 xG 1.33
46% Ball Possession 54%
7 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 0
293 Passes 395
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
14 Box Touches 18
26 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Leon vs Cruz Azul
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cruz Azul edged past Leon 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 27% / 37% — and on the day Cruz Azul made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Leon had 46% of the ball to Cruz Azul's 54%, shots finished 7-12, expected goals 1.38 to 1.33.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cruz Azul led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Leon and 1.50 for Cruz Azul.

What was the final score of Leon vs Cruz Azul?

Leon 2-3 Cruz Azul in the Mexico - Primera on 09/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leon vs Cruz Azul?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cruz Azul win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Leon 36%, draw 27%, Cruz Azul 37%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cruz Azul) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cruz Azul) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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