Cruz Azul vs Leon Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Cruz Azul v Leon — Team-Based Signals
Cruz Azul vs Leon Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 1-0
Leon
MEK
0-0
HT 0-0
Cruz Azul
MEK
1-0
HT 0-0
Leon
MEK
2-1
HT 0-0
Leon
MEK
Cruz Azul 2-1 Leon — Actual Match Statistics
Cruz Azul edged past Leon 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Cruz Azul as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.
On the day, Cruz Azul had 62% of the ball to Leon's 38%, shots finished 23-7, expected goals 2.01 to 0.49 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Cruz Azul's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cruz Azul had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Cruz Azul and 0.67 for Leon.
What was the final score of Cruz Azul vs Leon?
Cruz Azul 2-1 Leon in the Mexico - Primera on 16/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Cruz Azul vs Leon?
Before kick-off our model rated a Cruz Azul win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Cruz Azul 51%, draw 24%, Leon 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cruz Azul), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.