Guadalajara 1-0 Puebla — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 16 Apr 2025

📅16/04/2025 · 🕒04:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.49
Draw
28%
3.94
Away
22%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.86
Over 2.5
44%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.03
No
54%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
5%
X/X
16%
2/1
9%
2/2
9%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
63%
-13.5pp
28%
Draw
22%
+6.0pp
22%
Away Win
15%
+7.5pp
56%
Under 2.5
50%
+5.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
50%
-5.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
45%
+0.3pp
54%
BTTS No
55%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Puebla EU Bookmakers 18%
-1% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -22%
1.63/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.94
-8% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +4%
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
391 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 249 · 74%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
21.1 Crosses 14.8
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guadalajara
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Puebla
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.42 xG 1.11
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
389 Passes 289
84% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 15
23 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
26.10.2024 Puebla Puebla 1-0 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
07.04.2024 Guadalajara Guadalajara 3-2 HT 1-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
21.10.2023 Puebla Puebla 0-2 HT 0-1 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
11.03.2023 Puebla Puebla 1-0 HT 1-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
10.10.2022 Puebla Puebla 1-1 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
11.09.2022 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-0 HT 0-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Guadalajara
1-0
AWAY Puebla
0.83 xG 0.35
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 7
427 Passes 350
88% Pass Accuracy 88%
15 Box Touches 19
9 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Guadalajara vs Puebla
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guadalajara nicked a narrow win over Puebla 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Guadalajara as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Guadalajara had 54% of the ball to Puebla's 46%, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 0.83 to 0.35.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guadalajara had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Guadalajara and 0.83 for Puebla.

What was the final score of Guadalajara vs Puebla?

Guadalajara 1-0 Puebla in the Mexico - Primera on 16/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guadalajara vs Puebla?

Before kick-off our model rated a Guadalajara win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Guadalajara 50%, draw 28%, Puebla 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Guadalajara), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Guadalajara) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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