Farense 1-1 Paços De Ferreira — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 9 May 2026

Farense
1-1 HT 0-0
Paços De Ferreira
📅09/05/2026 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Portugal - 2nd Division – 2025/2026

Farense vs Paços De Ferreira Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.92
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
27%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.74
Over 2.5
43%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.85
No
55%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.78
2-3 Goals
38%
1.7
4-5 Goals
18%
3.73
6+ Goals
10%
16.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.78 — our 34% vs market 28.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
19%
X/2
14%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
48%
-1.3pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.0pp
27%
Away Win
25%
+1.3pp
57%
Under 2.5
54%
+3.5pp
43%
Over 2.5
46%
-3.5pp
45%
BTTS Yes
50%
-5.5pp
55%
BTTS No
50%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Farense v Paços De Ferreira — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Farense EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Paços De Ferreira EU Bookmakers 29%
-10% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -12%
1.38/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.52
-3% / -37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -18%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
322 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 76%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
25.2 Crosses 17.5
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.9

Farense vs Paços De Ferreira Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Farense
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Paços De Ferreira
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.59 xG 1.29
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
238 Passes 288
70% Pass Accuracy 75%
13 Box Touches 11
25 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
28.12.2025 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 0-0 HT 0-0 Farense Farense POR2
20.04.2021 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 0-2 HT 0-0 Farense Farense POR
27.12.2020 Farense Farense 1-1 HT 0-0 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR
10.02.2002 Farense Farense 1-1 HT 1-1 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR
16.09.2001 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 1-1 HT 0-1 Farense Farense POR
29.04.2001 Farense Farense 2-4 HT 1-0 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR

Farense 1-1 Paços De Ferreira — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Farense
1-1
AWAY Paços De Ferreira
0.94 xG 2.31
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 9
211 Passes 191
68% Pass Accuracy 72%
22 Crosses 31
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Farense vs Paços De Ferreira
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Farense and Paços De Ferreira couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Farense at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (57%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.

On the day, Farense had 53% of the ball to Paços De Ferreira's 47%, shots finished 12-16, expected goals 0.94 to 2.31.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Farense and 1.17 for Paços De Ferreira.

What was the final score of Farense vs Paços De Ferreira?

Farense 1-1 Paços De Ferreira in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 09/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Farense vs Paços De Ferreira?

Before kick-off our model rated a Farense win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Farense 46%, draw 27%, Paços De Ferreira 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Farense), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Farense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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