Chaves vs Leixoes Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Chaves v Leixoes — Team-Based Signals
Chaves vs Leixoes Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 1-0
Chaves
POR2
1-1
HT 0-1
Leixoes
POR2
Chaves 1-2 Leixoes — Actual Match Statistics
Leixoes nicked a narrow win over Chaves 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was Chaves at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.
On the day, Chaves had 54% of the ball to Leixoes's 46%, shots finished 18-12, expected goals 2.87 to 1.69 — the balance of chances actually favoured Chaves.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chaves had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Chaves and 0.33 for Leixoes.
What was the final score of Chaves vs Leixoes?
Chaves 1-2 Leixoes in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 09/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Chaves vs Leixoes?
Before kick-off our model rated a Chaves win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Chaves 42%, draw 27%, Leixoes 32%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.