Penafiel vs Maritimo Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Penafiel v Maritimo — Team-Based Signals
Penafiel vs Maritimo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-0
HT 0-0
Penafiel
POR2
2-3
HT 1-1
Maritimo
POK
Penafiel 1-0 Maritimo — Actual Match Statistics
Penafiel edged past Maritimo 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we said in the preview, our model had Penafiel as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.
On the day, Penafiel had 40% of the ball to Maritimo's 60%, shots finished 8-3, expected goals 1.78 to 0.19 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Penafiel's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Maritimo led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Penafiel and 1.33 for Maritimo.
What was the final score of Penafiel vs Maritimo?
Penafiel 1-0 Maritimo in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 09/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Penafiel vs Maritimo?
Before kick-off our model rated a Penafiel win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Penafiel 45%, draw 24%, Maritimo 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Penafiel), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.