Maritimo vs Penafiel Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Maritimo v Penafiel — Team-Based Signals
Maritimo vs Penafiel Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-0
HT 0-0
Penafiel
POR2
2-3
HT 1-1
Maritimo
POK
0-0
HT 0-0
Penafiel
PORLC
Maritimo 2-1 Penafiel — Actual Match Statistics
Maritimo nicked a narrow win over Penafiel 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we said in the preview, our model had Maritimo as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.
On the day, Maritimo had 69% of the ball to Penafiel's 31%, shots finished 15-4, expected goals 2.23 to 1.13.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Maritimo had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Maritimo and 0.67 for Penafiel.
What was the final score of Maritimo vs Penafiel?
Maritimo 2-1 Penafiel in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 23/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Maritimo vs Penafiel?
Before kick-off our model rated a Maritimo win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Maritimo 53%, draw 22%, Penafiel 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Maritimo), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.