Penafiel 0-1 Maritimo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 29 Mar 2025

Penafiel
0-1 HT 0-1
Maritimo
📅29/03/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Portugal - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Penafiel vs Maritimo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.67
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
37%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.67
Over 2.5
46%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.85
No
51%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.62
2-3 Goals
39%
1.73
4-5 Goals
20%
4.11
6+ Goals
11%
20.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
10%
1/X
5%
X/1
8%
X/2
12%
X/X
16%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
34%
+0.9pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.8pp
37%
Away Win
37%
-0.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
56%
-2.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
44%
+2.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
50%
-0.5pp
51%
BTTS No
50%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Penafiel v Maritimo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Penafiel EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Maritimo EU Bookmakers 40%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +21% / +20%
1.29/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.93/1.28
-11% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +43% / -4%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
301 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 75%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
20.9 Crosses 17.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4

Penafiel vs Maritimo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Penafiel
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Maritimo
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.30 xG 1.25
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
182 Passes 270
69% Pass Accuracy 74%
15 Crosses 25
4 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
02.11.2024 Maritimo Maritimo 1-2 HT 1-1 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
05.05.2024 Penafiel Penafiel 0-1 HT 0-1 Maritimo Maritimo POR2
23.12.2023 Maritimo Maritimo 0-0 HT 0-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
23.11.2020 Penafiel Penafiel 2-3 HT 1-1 Maritimo Maritimo POK
21.12.2019 Maritimo Maritimo 0-0 HT 0-0 Penafiel Penafiel PORLC
15.02.2015 Penafiel Penafiel 3-4 HT 2-1 Maritimo Maritimo POR

Penafiel 0-1 Maritimo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Penafiel
0-1
AWAY Maritimo
0.85 xG 2.13
60% Ball Possession 40%
7 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 7
8 Corners 3
212 Passes 151
71% Pass Accuracy 69%
11 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Penafiel vs Maritimo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Maritimo nicked a narrow win over Penafiel 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (35% / 28% / 37%) promised a tight game; Maritimo found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Penafiel had 60% of the ball to Maritimo's 40%, shots finished 7-12, expected goals 0.85 to 2.13 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Maritimo's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Maritimo led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Penafiel and 1.50 for Maritimo.

What was the final score of Penafiel vs Maritimo?

Penafiel 0-1 Maritimo in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 29/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Penafiel vs Maritimo?

Before kick-off our model rated an Maritimo win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Penafiel 35%, draw 28%, Maritimo 37%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Maritimo), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Maritimo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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