Vizela 3-2 Portimonense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 29 Mar 2025

📅29/03/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.42
Draw
21%
4.34
Away
22%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.07
Over 2.5
47%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.95
No
56%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.75
2-3 Goals
43%
1.81
4-5 Goals
20%
3.04
6+ Goals
8%
9.86
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.75 — our 29% vs market 20.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
7%
X/X
8%
2/1
10%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
67%
-9.6pp
21%
Draw
20%
+1.1pp
22%
Away Win
13%
+8.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
44%
+9.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
56%
-9.0pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.7pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vizela EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Portimonense EU Bookmakers 16%
+0% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -18%
1.90/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.45
+1% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -94% / -3%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
375 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
23.4 Crosses 20.1
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vizela
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Portimonense
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.05 xG 1.18
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
347 Passes 224
80% Pass Accuracy 72%
24 Box Touches 17
28 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
02.11.2024 Portimonense Portimonense 1-1 HT 1-1 Vizela Vizela POR2
03.03.2024 Portimonense Portimonense 0-0 HT 0-0 Vizela Vizela POR
30.09.2023 Vizela Vizela 2-3 HT 0-2 Portimonense Portimonense POR
18.03.2023 Portimonense Portimonense 0-1 HT 0-0 Vizela Vizela POR
01.10.2022 Vizela Vizela 1-0 HT 1-0 Portimonense Portimonense POR
27.02.2022 Vizela Vizela 1-1 HT 1-1 Portimonense Portimonense POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vizela
3-2
AWAY Portimonense
1.45 xG 1.27
67% Ball Possession 33%
27 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
13 Corners 4
335 Passes 126
84% Pass Accuracy 67%
39 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Vizela vs Portimonense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vizela nicked a narrow win over Portimonense 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Vizela as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Vizela had 67% of the ball to Portimonense's 33%, shots finished 27-9, expected goals 1.45 to 1.27.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vizela had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Vizela and 0.83 for Portimonense.

What was the final score of Vizela vs Portimonense?

Vizela 3-2 Portimonense in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 29/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vizela vs Portimonense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vizela win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Vizela 57%, draw 21%, Portimonense 22%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vizela) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Vizela) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR2 More Portugal - 2nd Division
29 Mar 2025
14:00 UD Oliveirense vs Tondela Analysis →
17:00 Penafiel vs Maritimo Analysis →