UD Oliveirense 1-3 Tondela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 29 Mar 2025

📅29/03/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.32
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
44%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.71
Over 2.5
45%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.88
No
54%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.71
2-3 Goals
38%
1.73
4-5 Goals
22%
3.97
6+ Goals
9%
18.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
10%
1/X
6%
X/1
9%
X/2
20%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
27%
-0.7pp
30%
Draw
26%
+3.6pp
44%
Away Win
47%
-2.9pp
55%
Under 2.5
55%
+0.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
45%
-0.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.3pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME UD Oliveirense EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Tondela EU Bookmakers 51%
-12% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
1.24/1.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/0.98
-7% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / -25%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
260 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
18.3 Crosses 22.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME UD Oliveirense
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Tondela
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.19 xG 1.40
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
324 Passes 315
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.11.2024 Tondela Tondela 2-0 HT 2-0 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POR2
04.05.2024 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense 2-1 HT 2-1 Tondela Tondela POR2
30.12.2023 Tondela Tondela 1-0 HT 1-0 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POR2
01.04.2023 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense 0-0 HT 0-0 Tondela Tondela POR2
19.10.2022 Tondela Tondela 1-3 HT 1-2 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POR2
17.07.2019 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense 0-0 HT 0-0 Tondela Tondela HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME UD Oliveirense
1-3
AWAY Tondela
1.20 xG 4.07
66% Ball Possession 34%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
339 Passes 191
85% Pass Accuracy 75%
11 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH UD Oliveirense vs Tondela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tondela saw off UD Oliveirense 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Tondela as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, UD Oliveirense had 66% of the ball to Tondela's 34%, shots finished 10-13, expected goals 1.20 to 4.07.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for UD Oliveirense and 0.83 for Tondela.

What was the final score of UD Oliveirense vs Tondela?

UD Oliveirense 1-3 Tondela in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 29/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for UD Oliveirense vs Tondela?

Before kick-off our model rated an Tondela win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split UD Oliveirense 26%, draw 30%, Tondela 44%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tondela) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Tondela) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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