Carmarthen Town 3-2 Baglan Dragons — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - FAW Championship, 9 Aug 2024

📅09/08/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.86
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
30%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.18
Over 2.5
52%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.6
No
48%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
13%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
50%
-5.0pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.6pp
30%
Away Win
26%
+4.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
42%
+5.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
58%
-5.8pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.7pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Carmarthen Town EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Baglan Dragons EU Bookmakers 29%
+17% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
2.09/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.50
+2% / +90% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +36%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
341 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Carmarthen Town
0W-2D-0L
AWAY Baglan Dragons
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
01.04.2024 Baglan Dragons Baglan Dragons 2-2 HT 2-1 Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town GALFAW
08.08.2023 Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Baglan Dragons Baglan Dragons GALFAW
POST-MATCH Carmarthen Town vs Baglan Dragons
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Carmarthen Town squeezed past Baglan Dragons 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Carmarthen Town as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Carmarthen Town and 1.00 for Baglan Dragons.

What was the final score of Carmarthen Town vs Baglan Dragons?

Carmarthen Town 3-2 Baglan Dragons in the Wales - FAW Championship on 09/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Carmarthen Town vs Baglan Dragons?

Before kick-off our model rated a Carmarthen Town win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Carmarthen Town 45%, draw 25%, Baglan Dragons 30%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Carmarthen Town), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Carmarthen Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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