MVV Maastricht 0-1 Cambuur — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 9 Aug 2024

📅09/08/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.67
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
37%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.38
Over 2.5
54%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.46
No
45%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.03
2-3 Goals
42%
1.96
4-5 Goals
23%
2.75
6+ Goals
12%
7.19
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.96
1/2
7%
22.7
1/X
8%
12.85
X/1
13%
6.47
X/2
16%
5.29
X/X
9%
5.73
2/1 EV+ ✗
13%
26.5
2/2
14%
3.01
2/X
7%
12.75
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.5 — our 13% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
34%
+5.2pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.1pp
37%
Away Win
42%
-5.3pp
46%
Under 2.5
38%
+8.2pp
54%
Over 2.5
62%
-8.2pp
55%
BTTS Yes
64%
-9.6pp
45%
BTTS No
36%
+9.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME MVV Maastricht EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Cambuur EU Bookmakers 46%
+4% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +10%
1.36/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.79/1.22
+13% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / -2%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
309 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 353 · 78%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.5
16.5 Crosses 16.4
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME MVV Maastricht
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Cambuur
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.50
1.07 xG 2.24
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 6
277 Passes 398
73% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 22
15 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 1
12.01.2024 Cambuur Cambuur 5-2 HT 3-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
02.11.2023 Cambuur Cambuur 4-1 HT 4-1 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOK
20.10.2023 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 1-1 HT 1-1 Cambuur Cambuur HOL2
31.01.2021 Cambuur Cambuur 2-0 HT 0-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
05.09.2020 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 1-7 HT 1-4 Cambuur Cambuur HOL2
07.02.2020 Cambuur Cambuur 2-1 HT 2-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME MVV Maastricht
0-1
AWAY Cambuur
0.56 xG 0.81
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 7
335 Passes 336
77% Pass Accuracy 76%
13 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH MVV Maastricht vs Cambuur
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cambuur squeezed past MVV Maastricht 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 24% / 37%) promised a tight game; Cambuur found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, MVV Maastricht had 50% of the ball to Cambuur's 50%, shots finished 9-12, expected goals 0.56 to 0.81.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cambuur led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for MVV Maastricht and 3.50 for Cambuur.

What was the final score of MVV Maastricht vs Cambuur?

MVV Maastricht 0-1 Cambuur in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 09/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for MVV Maastricht vs Cambuur?

Before kick-off our model rated a MVV Maastricht win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split MVV Maastricht 39%, draw 24%, Cambuur 37%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (MVV Maastricht) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HOL2 More Netherlands - Eerste Divisie
9 Aug 2024
21:00 FC Oss vs Excelsior Analysis →
21:00 Emmen vs Dordrecht Analysis →
21:00 FC Eindhoven vs Den Bosch Analysis →
21:00 Helmond Sport vs Utrecht II Analysis →