Manchester United 1-1 Fiorentina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 9 Aug 2025

Manchester United
1-1 HT 1-1
Fiorentina
📅09/08/2025 · 🕒14:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Friendlies – 2025/2026

Manchester United vs Fiorentina Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.49
Draw
22%
4.19
Away
22%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.29
Over 2.5
53%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.7
No
48%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
4.52
2-3 Goals
38%
1.9
4-5 Goals
20%
2.78
6+ Goals
14%
7.59
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.83
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
7%
15.5
X/1
17%
4.13
X/2
6%
12.15
X/X
8%
6.58
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
20.1
2/2
12%
9.31
2/X
6%
17.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.1 — our 8% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
63%
-6.9pp
22%
Draw
21%
+0.9pp
22%
Away Win
16%
+6.0pp
47%
Under 2.5
40%
+6.7pp
53%
Over 2.5
60%
-6.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
55%
-2.8pp
48%
BTTS No
45%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Manchester United v Fiorentina — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Manchester United EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Fiorentina EU Bookmakers 20%
+1% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
1.23/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.48
+0% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -70% / +43%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
404 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 79%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.9
12.7 Crosses 28.2
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.5

Manchester United 1-1 Fiorentina — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Manchester United
1-1
AWAY Fiorentina
1.91 xG 0.91
61% Ball Possession 39%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 1
449 Passes 270
88% Pass Accuracy 83%
32 Box Touches 14
12 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Manchester United vs Fiorentina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Manchester United and Fiorentina couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

This one beat our numbers. Manchester United carried 56% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Manchester United had 61% of the ball to Fiorentina's 39%, shots finished 14-10, expected goals 1.91 to 0.91.

What was the final score of Manchester United vs Fiorentina?

Manchester United 1-1 Fiorentina in the Friendlies on 09/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Manchester United vs Fiorentina?

Before kick-off our model rated a Manchester United win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Manchester United 56%, draw 22%, Fiorentina 22%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Manchester United), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Manchester United) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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