Ards FC 3-1 Ballinamallard United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — North Ireland - 1st Division, 9 Aug 2025

📅09/08/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.82
Draw
18%
3.64
Away
27%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.15
Over 2.5
59%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.61
No
45%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.94
2-3 Goals
44%
1.81
4-5 Goals
26%
2.9
6+ Goals
8%
8.83
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
10%
X/X
6%
2/1
9%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
51%
+4.0pp
17%
Draw
24%
-7.0pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+2.9pp
41%
Under 2.5
43%
-2.1pp
59%
Over 2.5
57%
+2.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.2pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ards FC EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Ballinamallard United EU Bookmakers 28%
-6% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +7%
2.07/1.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.72
+3% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +15%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
301 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ards FC
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Ballinamallard United
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
45% Ball Possession 55%
5 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.01.2025 Ballinamallard United Ballinamallard United 2-2 Ards FC Ards FC KİRL1
07.12.2024 Ards FC Ards FC 0-1 HT 0-1 Ballinamallard United Ballinamallard United KİRL1
24.08.2024 Ballinamallard United Ballinamallard United 2-2 HT 2-0 Ards FC Ards FC KİRL1
20.04.2024 Ballinamallard United Ballinamallard United 0-5 HT 0-5 Ards FC Ards FC KİRL1
13.01.2024 Ards FC Ards FC 0-1 HT 0-0 Ballinamallard United Ballinamallard United KİRL1
09.12.2023 Ards FC Ards FC 2-2 HT 1-1 Ballinamallard United Ballinamallard United KİRL1
POST-MATCH Ards FC vs Ballinamallard United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ards FC beat Ballinamallard United 3-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had Ards FC as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ballinamallard United led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Ards FC and 1.33 for Ballinamallard United.

What was the final score of Ards FC vs Ballinamallard United?

Ards FC 3-1 Ballinamallard United in the North Ireland - 1st Division on 09/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ards FC vs Ballinamallard United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ards FC win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Ards FC 55%, draw 17%, Ballinamallard United 27%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ards FC), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ards FC) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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