Progreso 1-2 Cerro Largo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 9 Aug 2025

📅09/08/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.27
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
36%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.59
Over 2.5
43%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.96
No
53%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
13%
X/X
14%
2/1
10%
2/2
17%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
40%
-2.2pp
26%
Draw
29%
-2.4pp
36%
Away Win
31%
+4.6pp
57%
Under 2.5
59%
-1.5pp
43%
Over 2.5
41%
+1.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.3pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Progreso EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerro Largo EU Bookmakers 34%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -14%
1.12/0.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.11
-6% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +6%
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
298 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Progreso
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Cerro Largo
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
08.02.2025 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 4-1 HT 3-0 Progreso Progreso URU
30.11.2024 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 2-1 HT 1-0 Progreso Progreso URU
04.06.2024 Progreso Progreso 0-1 HT 0-0 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo URU
17.10.2021 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 1-0 HT 0-0 Progreso Progreso URU
19.06.2021 Progreso Progreso 0-0 HT 0-0 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo URU
15.03.2021 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 1-0 HT 0-0 Progreso Progreso URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Progreso
1-2
AWAY Cerro Largo
60% Ball Possession 40%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Progreso vs Cerro Largo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerro Largo nicked a narrow win over Progreso 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 26% / 36% — and on the day Cerro Largo made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Progreso had 60% of the ball to Cerro Largo's 40%, shots finished 13-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cerro Largo led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Progreso and 1.50 for Cerro Largo.

What was the final score of Progreso vs Cerro Largo?

Progreso 1-2 Cerro Largo in the Uruguay - Premier League on 09/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Progreso vs Cerro Largo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Progreso win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Progreso 38%, draw 26%, Cerro Largo 36%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Progreso) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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