CA Penarol 3-0 Nacional de Football — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 9 Aug 2025

📅09/08/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.33
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
32%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.74
Over 2.5
48%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.76
No
45%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
13%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
39%
-0.8pp
29%
Draw
30%
-0.3pp
32%
Away Win
31%
+1.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
54%
-1.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
46%
+1.2pp
55%
BTTS Yes
53%
+2.0pp
45%
BTTS No
47%
-2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CA Penarol EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Nacional de Football EU Bookmakers 34%
+4% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +1%
0.67/0.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.76/0.91
-44% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / +30%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
298 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.9 Yellow Cards 3.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CA Penarol
0W-5D-1L
AWAY Nacional de Football
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
06.07.2025 CA Penarol CA Penarol 0-0 HT 0-0 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
06.07.2025 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 0-0 HT 0-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
10.02.2025 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 1-1 HT 0-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
06.10.2024 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 2-1 HT 1-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
04.08.2024 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 1-1 HT 0-1 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
29.03.2024 CA Penarol CA Penarol 0-0 HT 0-0 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CA Penarol
3-0
AWAY Nacional de Football
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH CA Penarol vs Nacional de Football
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CA Penarol ran out comfortable winners over Nacional de Football 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 29% / 32% — and on the day CA Penarol made the difference. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, CA Penarol had 50% of the ball to Nacional de Football's 50%, shots finished 15-7.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nacional de Football led the recent series with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for CA Penarol and 0.67 for Nacional de Football.

What was the final score of CA Penarol vs Nacional de Football?

CA Penarol 3-0 Nacional de Football in the Uruguay - Premier League on 09/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CA Penarol vs Nacional de Football?

Before kick-off our model rated a CA Penarol win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split CA Penarol 39%, draw 29%, Nacional de Football 32%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CA Penarol) — while Under 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (CA Penarol) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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