Nacional de Football 1-1 CA Penarol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 10 Feb 2025

📅10/02/2025 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.27
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
36%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.6
Over 2.5
47%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.95
No
52%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
13%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
40%
-4.4pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.8pp
36%
Away Win
31%
+5.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
59%
-5.3pp
47%
Over 2.5
41%
+5.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.2pp
52%
BTTS No
53%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nacional de Football EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY CA Penarol EU Bookmakers 34%
+19% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +5%
1.45/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.06
+21% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +12%
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
289 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses 16.0
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nacional de Football
2W-3D-1L
AWAY CA Penarol
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
06.10.2024 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 2-1 HT 1-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
04.08.2024 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 1-1 HT 0-1 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
29.03.2024 CA Penarol CA Penarol 0-0 HT 0-0 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
24.01.2024 CA Penarol CA Penarol 0-2 HT 0-2 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football HAZ
11.11.2023 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 2-2 HT 1-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
01.04.2023 CA Penarol CA Penarol 2-0 HT 0-0 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nacional de Football
1-1
AWAY CA Penarol
58% Ball Possession 42%
9 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Nacional de Football vs CA Penarol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nacional de Football and CA Penarol shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 28% / 36% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Nacional de Football had 58% of the ball to CA Penarol's 42%, shots finished 9-4.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nacional de Football had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Nacional de Football and 1.00 for CA Penarol.

What was the final score of Nacional de Football vs CA Penarol?

Nacional de Football 1-1 CA Penarol in the Uruguay - Premier League on 10/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nacional de Football vs CA Penarol?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nacional de Football win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Nacional de Football 36%, draw 28%, CA Penarol 36%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (36/28/36) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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