Azerbaycan 1-1 Ukrayna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — World Cup Qualifiers, 9 Sep 2025

📅09/09/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
15%
6.35
Draw
21%
4.19
Away
64%
1.41
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.91
Over 2.5
51%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.13
No
53%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.25
2-3 Goals EV+ ✓
50%
1.75
4-5 Goals
19%
3.35
6+ Goals
7%
12.75
Value flag · 2-3 Goals at 1.75 — our 50% vs market 48.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
14.0
1/2
6%
24.5
1/X
4%
21.5
X/1
7%
15.3
X/2
19%
3.72
X/X
11%
5.76
2/1
2%
34.5
2/2
40%
1.65
2/X
6%
18.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
15%
Home Win
13%
+1.9pp
21%
Draw
21%
+0.2pp
64%
Away Win
67%
-2.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
43%
+4.0pp
53%
BTTS No
57%
-4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Azerbaycan EU Bookmakers 16%
Head to Head
AWAY Ukrayna EU Bookmakers 71%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
0.95/2.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.96/0.56
+11% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -45%
39% Ball Possession 61%
8 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
196 · 66% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 441 · 80%
10.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.8
5.0 Crosses 15.5
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Azerbaycan
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Ukrayna
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 6.00
15.08.2006 Ukrayna Ukrayna 6-0 HT 4-0 Azerbaycan Azerbaycan HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Azerbaycan
1-1
AWAY Ukrayna
1.00 xG 0.98
26% Ball Possession 74%
4 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 9
136 Passes 472
68% Pass Accuracy 85%
8 Box Touches 31
8 Crosses 30
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Azerbaycan vs Ukrayna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Azerbaycan and Ukrayna shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Ukrayna at 64% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Azerbaycan had 26% of the ball to Ukrayna's 74%, shots finished 4-16, expected goals 1.00 to 0.98.

What was the final score of Azerbaycan vs Ukrayna?

Azerbaycan 1-1 Ukrayna in the World Cup Qualifiers on 09/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Azerbaycan vs Ukrayna?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ukrayna win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Azerbaycan 15%, draw 21%, Ukrayna 64%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Ukrayna) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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