Finlandiya 2-1 Litvanya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — World Cup Qualifiers, 9 Oct 2025

📅09/10/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.57
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
15%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.68
Over 2.5
42%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.13
No
53%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.7
2-3 Goals
42%
1.75
4-5 Goals
18%
4.09
6+ Goals
9%
19.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.7 — our 31% vs market 30.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.02
1/2
3%
35.0
1/X
8%
16.45
X/1 EV+ ✗
32%
3.86
X/2
5%
11.3
X/X
13%
4.75
2/1
6%
26.5
2/2
7%
10.2
2/X
7%
18.8
Value flag · X/1 at 3.86 — our 32% vs market 20.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
59%
-2.3pp
28%
Draw
24%
+3.5pp
15%
Away Win
16%
-1.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.4pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
43%
+4.5pp
53%
BTTS No
57%
-4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Finlandiya EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Litvanya EU Bookmakers 20%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
0.70/0.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.12/2.33
-42% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -77% / +56%
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
340 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 254 · 75%
33.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 4.0
24.0 Crosses 9.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Finlandiya
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Litvanya
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.20 xG 0.48
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 2
445 Passes 344
87% Pass Accuracy 84%
33 Box Touches 12
19 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 3
24.03.2025 Litvanya Litvanya 2-2 HT 1-2 Finlandiya Finlandiya DKE
29.05.2014 Finlandiya Finlandiya 0-1 HT 0-1 Litvanya Litvanya BALTIK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Finlandiya
2-1
AWAY Litvanya
1.35 xG 0.68
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 1
365 Passes 363
86% Pass Accuracy 84%
20 Box Touches 12
17 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Finlandiya vs Litvanya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Finlandiya edged past Litvanya 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Finlandiya as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Finlandiya had 50% of the ball to Litvanya's 50%, shots finished 11-8, expected goals 1.35 to 0.68.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Litvanya led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Finlandiya and 1.50 for Litvanya.

What was the final score of Finlandiya vs Litvanya?

Finlandiya 2-1 Litvanya in the World Cup Qualifiers on 09/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Finlandiya vs Litvanya?

Before kick-off our model rated a Finlandiya win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Finlandiya 57%, draw 28%, Litvanya 15%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Finlandiya) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Finlandiya) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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