Derby County 1-1 Plymouth Argyle — Result, Stats & Model Review (England - Championship, 9 Nov 2024)

Derby County

1-1 HT 1-1

Plymouth Argyle

📅09/11/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3

Top 2 Score Predictions

1st Score 2-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗

England - Championship – 2024/2025

Derby County vs Plymouth Argyle Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions

Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend

⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.

Match Result

Home

59%

1.72

Draw

22%

3.64

Away

19%

4.15

Under/Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51%

1.97

Over 2.5

49%

1.75

Both Teams to Score

Yes

45%

1.76

55%

1.95

Total Goals

0-1 Goal EV+ ✗

24%

3.58

2-3 Goals

44%

1.81

4-5 Goals

20%

3.35

6+ Goals

12%

12.25

Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.58 — our 24% vs market 22.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.

Half Time / Full Time

1/1

35%

2.21

1/2

34.5

1/X

14.7

X/1

15%

4.0

X/2

9.26

X/X

10%

5.24

2/1

22.7

2/2

7.07

2/X

15.4

PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine

Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline

◎

Our call

Derby County win — 59% ✗

Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.

STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.

Model vs Market — where we differ

iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers

59%

Home Win

54%

+4.5pp

22%

Draw

24%

-2.0pp

19%

Away Win

21%

-2.5pp

51%

Under 2.5

47%

+4.2pp

49%

Over 2.5

53%

-4.2pp

45%

BTTS Yes

53%

-7.5pp

55%

BTTS No

47%

+7.5pp

gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Derby County v Plymouth Argyle — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine

iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals

HOME Derby County EU Bookmakers 58%

Head to Head

AWAY Plymouth Argyle EU Bookmakers 24%

+3% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -6%

1.79/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/1.79

+1% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -45% / -11%

53% Ball Possession 47%

16 Total Shots 10

7 Shots on Target 3

6 Corners 4

362 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 76%

24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8

18.4 Crosses 10.5

1.6 Yellow Cards 2.5

Derby County vs Plymouth Argyle Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings

Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings

HOME Derby County

3W-0D-3L

AWAY Plymouth Argyle

1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33

1.20 xG 1.16

41% Ball Possession 59%

11 Total Shots 11

5 Shots on Target 5

8 Corners 6

222 Passes 374

64% Pass Accuracy 74%

22 Box Touches 23

14 Crosses 14

1 Yellow Cards 2

The Meetings

07.03.2023 Plymouth Argyle

2-1 HT 0-1

Derby County İN1

03.09.2022 Derby County

2-3 HT 2-0

Plymouth Argyle İN1

26.01.2010 Plymouth Argyle

1-0 HT 0-0

Derby County İNCL

22.08.2009 Derby County

2-1 HT 1-1

Plymouth Argyle İNCL

07.02.2009 Plymouth Argyle

0-3 HT 0-1

Derby County İNCL

18.10.2008 Derby County

2-1 HT 1-1

Plymouth Argyle İNCL

Derby County 1-1 Plymouth Argyle — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result

Real recorded figures from this match

HOME Derby County

1-1

AWAY Plymouth Argyle

1.09 xG 0.13

53% Ball Possession 47%

20 Total Shots 5

4 Shots on Target 2

8 Corners 3

339 Passes 317

75% Pass Accuracy 76%

38 Box Touches 6

28 Crosses 7

1 Yellow Cards 4

POST-MATCH Derby County vs Plymouth Argyle

iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Derby County and Plymouth Argyle couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

This one beat our numbers. Derby County carried 59% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Derby County had 53% of the ball to Plymouth Argyle's 47%, shots finished 20-5, expected goals 1.09 to 0.13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Derby County and 1.33 for Plymouth Argyle.

What was the final score of Derby County vs Plymouth Argyle?

Derby County 1-1 Plymouth Argyle in the England - Championship on 09/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Derby County vs Plymouth Argyle?

Before kick-off our model rated a Derby County win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Derby County 59%, draw 22%, Plymouth Argyle 19%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Derby County), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Derby County) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No

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