Liverpool 2-0 Aston Villa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 9 Nov 2024

Liverpool
2-0 HT 1-0
Aston Villa
📅09/11/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - Premier League – 2024/2025

Liverpool vs Aston Villa Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.49
Draw
22%
4.19
Away
18%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.23
Over 2.5
59%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.7
No
48%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.64
2-3 Goals
37%
1.91
4-5 Goals
27%
2.86
6+ Goals
16%
8.07
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.84
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
16.65
X/1
17%
3.79
X/2
7%
12.1
X/X
7%
6.55
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
20.6
2/2
5%
8.83
2/X
8%
17.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.6 — our 12% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
62%
-1.8pp
22%
Draw
20%
+1.3pp
18%
Away Win
17%
+0.5pp
41%
Under 2.5
41%
-0.2pp
59%
Over 2.5
59%
+0.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
55%
-2.8pp
48%
BTTS No
45%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Liverpool v Aston Villa — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Liverpool EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Aston Villa EU Bookmakers 21%
+5% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +17%
2.42/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.91
+20% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +4%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
466 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 78%
37.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
21.7 Crosses 13.0
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.8

Liverpool vs Aston Villa Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Liverpool
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Aston Villa
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.95 xG 1.40
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
481 Passes 284
85% Pass Accuracy 77%
42 Box Touches 22
21 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
13.05.2024 Aston Villa Aston Villa 3-3 HT 1-2 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
03.09.2023 Liverpool Liverpool 3-0 HT 2-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
20.05.2023 Liverpool Liverpool 1-1 HT 0-1 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
26.12.2022 Aston Villa Aston Villa 1-3 HT 0-2 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
10.05.2022 Aston Villa Aston Villa 1-2 HT 1-1 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
11.12.2021 Liverpool Liverpool 1-0 HT 0-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP

Liverpool 2-0 Aston Villa — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Liverpool
2-0
AWAY Aston Villa
2.02 xG 1.38
62% Ball Possession 38%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 9
546 Passes 288
88% Pass Accuracy 82%
30 Box Touches 29
8 Crosses 23
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Liverpool vs Aston Villa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Liverpool saw off Aston Villa 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Liverpool as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Liverpool had 62% of the ball to Aston Villa's 38%, shots finished 14-12, expected goals 2.02 to 1.38.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Liverpool had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Liverpool and 1.00 for Aston Villa.

What was the final score of Liverpool vs Aston Villa?

Liverpool 2-0 Aston Villa in the England - Premier League on 09/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Liverpool vs Aston Villa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Liverpool win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Liverpool 61%, draw 22%, Aston Villa 18%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Liverpool) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Liverpool) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
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