Picerno 1-0 Benevento — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 9 Nov 2024

📅09/11/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
3.17
Draw
22%
3.18
Away
42%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.68
Over 2.5
46%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.85
No
56%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.79
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
23%
4.18
6+ Goals
9%
20.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
9%
X/X
8%
2/1
7%
2/2
26%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS No — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
28%
+8.0pp
22%
Draw
28%
-5.8pp
42%
Away Win
44%
-2.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
56%
-1.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
44%
+1.3pp
44%
BTTS Yes
50%
-6.1pp
56%
BTTS No
50%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Picerno EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Benevento EU Bookmakers 48%
+12% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +2%
1.57/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.03
+44% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -3%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
358 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 371 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Picerno
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Benevento
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.02.2024 Picerno Picerno 1-2 HT 1-0 Benevento Benevento İTC
15.10.2023 Benevento Benevento 2-2 HT 0-1 Picerno Picerno İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Picerno
1-0
AWAY Benevento
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Picerno vs Benevento
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Picerno edged past Benevento 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Benevento at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Picerno had 44% of the ball to Benevento's 56%, shots finished 13-13.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Benevento led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Picerno and 2.00 for Benevento.

What was the final score of Picerno vs Benevento?

Picerno 1-0 Benevento in the Italy - Serie C on 09/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Picerno vs Benevento?

Before kick-off our model rated an Benevento win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Picerno 36%, draw 22%, Benevento 42%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Benevento) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Benevento) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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