Energie Cottbus 3-3 Borussia Dortmund II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 9 Nov 2024

📅09/11/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.8
Draw
27%
3.8
Away
28%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under
41%
2.59
Over Pick
59%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.46
No
42%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1
21%
5.81
2-3
34%
2.04
4-5
30%
2.6
6+
15%
5.98
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.28
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
11%
13.5
X/1
14%
4.57
X/2
8%
8.62
X/X
8%
6.36
2/1
8%
19.8
2/2
14%
5.43
2/X
7%
13.7
Value flag · 1/X at 13.5 — our 11% vs market 4.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
52%
-6.7pp
27%
Draw
23%
+3.6pp
29%
Away Win
25%
+3.1pp
41%
Under 2.5
35%
+6.6pp
59%
Over 2.5
65%
-6.6pp
58%
BTTS Yes
64%
-6.6pp
42%
BTTS No
36%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Energie Cottbus EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Borussia Dortmund II EU Bookmakers 29%
+5% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +3%
3.31/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.76/1.78
+95% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +52% / -10%
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
250 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 78%
18.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
18.0 Crosses 19.8
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Energie Cottbus
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Borussia Dortmund II
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 3
09.05.2015 Energie Cottbus Energie Cottbus 0-3 HT 0-0 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II AL3
07.11.2014 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II 3-0 HT 1-0 Energie Cottbus Energie Cottbus AL3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Energie Cottbus
3-3
AWAY Borussia Dortmund II
61% Ball Possession 39%
20 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 4
363 Passes 203
78% Pass Accuracy 67%
36 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Energie Cottbus vs Borussia Dortmund II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Energie Cottbus and Borussia Dortmund II shared the points in a 3-3 draw. Half-time: 2-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Energie Cottbus at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Energie Cottbus had 61% of the ball to Borussia Dortmund II's 39%, shots finished 20-6.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Borussia Dortmund II led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Energie Cottbus and 3.00 for Borussia Dortmund II.

What was the final score of Energie Cottbus vs Borussia Dortmund II?

Energie Cottbus 3-3 Borussia Dortmund II in the Germany - 3rd Division on 09/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Energie Cottbus vs Borussia Dortmund II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Energie Cottbus win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Energie Cottbus 45%, draw 27%, Borussia Dortmund II 29%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Energie Cottbus) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Energie Cottbus) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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