Palmeiras 1-0 Gremio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 9 Nov 2024

📅09/11/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.42
Draw
19%
4.49
Away
19%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.23
Over 2.5
55%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.82
No
56%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.47
2-3 Goals
45%
1.9
4-5 Goals
23%
2.92
6+ Goals
11%
8.52
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.7
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
7%
18.85
X/1
22%
3.58
X/2
6%
14.3
X/X
7%
6.9
2/1
9%
21.2
2/2
8%
10.95
2/X
5%
19.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
66%
-4.2pp
19%
Draw
19%
+0.0pp
19%
Away Win
14%
+4.2pp
45%
Under 2.5
41%
+3.5pp
55%
Over 2.5
59%
-3.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.8pp
56%
BTTS No
49%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Gremio EU Bookmakers 17%
-2% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
2.03/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.59
+11% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +1%
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
400 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 79%
27.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
25.7 Crosses 12.3
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Palmeiras
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Gremio
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.99 xG 1.00
53% Ball Possession 47%
18 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
360 Passes 315
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
24 Box Touches 15
24 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
05.07.2024 Gremio Gremio 2-2 HT 1-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
22.09.2023 Gremio Gremio 1-0 HT 1-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
11.05.2023 Palmeiras Palmeiras 4-1 HT 1-1 Gremio Gremio BR1
31.10.2021 Gremio Gremio 1-3 HT 1-2 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
08.07.2021 Palmeiras Palmeiras 2-0 HT 2-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
08.03.2021 Palmeiras Palmeiras 2-0 HT 0-0 Gremio Gremio BRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Palmeiras
1-0
AWAY Gremio
2.81 xG 0.65
61% Ball Possession 39%
33 Total Shots 6
14 Shots on Target 0
14 Corners 1
350 Passes 200
79% Pass Accuracy 68%
51 Box Touches 14
33 Crosses 5
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Palmeiras vs Gremio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Palmeiras squeezed past Gremio 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Palmeiras as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (56%) landed while over 2.5 goals (55%) missed.

On the day, Palmeiras had 61% of the ball to Gremio's 39%, shots finished 33-6, expected goals 2.81 to 0.65 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Palmeiras's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Palmeiras had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Palmeiras and 0.83 for Gremio.

What was the final score of Palmeiras vs Gremio?

Palmeiras 1-0 Gremio in the Brazil - Serie A on 09/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Palmeiras vs Gremio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Palmeiras win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Palmeiras 62%, draw 19%, Gremio 19%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Palmeiras), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Palmeiras) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BR1 More Brazil - Serie A
9 Nov 2024
01:00 Internacional vs Fluminense Analysis →
22:30 Botafogo vs Cuiaba Analysis →
22:30 Vitoria vs Corinthians Analysis →