Barry Town 3-2 Connahs Quay — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 9 Nov 2024

📅09/11/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.47
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
42%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.0
Over 2.5
48%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.61
No
52%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.79
2-3 Goals
42%
1.83
4-5 Goals
23%
3.22
6+ Goals
8%
11.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.79 — our 27% vs market 21.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
17%
X/X
7%
2/1
6%
2/2
19%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
37%
-2.4pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.8pp
42%
Away Win
37%
+5.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
46%
+5.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
54%
-5.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.8pp
52%
BTTS No
42%
+9.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Barry Town EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Connahs Quay EU Bookmakers 40%
-14% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -13%
1.01/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/0.86
-21% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -37% / +41%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
307 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 397 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.7 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Barry Town
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Connahs Quay
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
42% Ball Possession 57%
6 Total Shots 14
0 Corners 6
07.09.2024 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 1-2 HT 1-0 Barry Town Barry Town GAL
02.12.2023 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 7-0 HT 2-0 Barry Town Barry Town GAL
09.09.2023 Barry Town Barry Town 1-4 HT 1-2 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
09.04.2022 Barry Town Barry Town 1-1 HT 1-0 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
12.03.2022 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 2-0 HT 1-0 Barry Town Barry Town GAL
29.01.2022 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 2-3 HT 1-0 Barry Town Barry Town GAL
POST-MATCH Barry Town vs Connahs Quay
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barry Town edged past Connahs Quay 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Connahs Quay at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Connahs Quay led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Barry Town and 2.83 for Connahs Quay.

What was the final score of Barry Town vs Connahs Quay?

Barry Town 3-2 Connahs Quay in the Wales - Premier League on 09/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Barry Town vs Connahs Quay?

Before kick-off our model rated an Connahs Quay win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Barry Town 34%, draw 24%, Connahs Quay 42%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Connahs Quay) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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