Casa Pia vs Farense Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Casa Pia v Farense — Team-Based Signals
Casa Pia vs Farense Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-3
HT 0-1
Casa Pia
POR
1-0
HT 1-0
Farense
POR2
0-1
HT 0-1
Casa Pia
POR2
3-1
HT 2-0
Farense
POK
0-2
HT 0-1
Farense
POR2
Casa Pia 1-1 Farense — Actual Match Statistics
Casa Pia and Farense couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.
Our pre-match lean was Casa Pia at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (58%) landed while no to both teams scoring (58%) missed.
On the day, Casa Pia had 64% of the ball to Farense's 36%, shots finished 13-8, expected goals 1.23 to 0.85.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Casa Pia had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Casa Pia and 1.00 for Farense.
What was the final score of Casa Pia vs Farense?
Casa Pia 1-1 Farense in the Portugal - Premier League on 09/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Casa Pia vs Farense?
Before kick-off our model rated a Casa Pia win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Casa Pia 48%, draw 26%, Farense 26%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Casa Pia), BTTS No went the other way.