Estrela vs Nacional Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Estrela v Nacional — Team-Based Signals
Estrela vs Nacional Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-1
HT 0-0
Nacional
POR2
0-1
HT 0-1
Estrela
POR2
0-0
HT 0-0
Nacional
POR2
4-1
HT 2-0
Estrela
POR2
Estrela 1-1 Nacional — Actual Match Statistics
Estrela and Nacional shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.
We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 30% / 32% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.
On the day, Estrela had 62% of the ball to Nacional's 38%, shots finished 14-17, expected goals 2.16 to 1.27.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Estrela had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Estrela and 0.83 for Nacional.
What was the final score of Estrela vs Nacional?
Estrela 1-1 Nacional in the Portugal - Premier League on 09/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Estrela vs Nacional?
Before kick-off our model rated a Estrela win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Estrela 38%, draw 30%, Nacional 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Estrela) went the other way.