Benfica 2-2 Casa Pia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 9 Nov 2025

Benfica
2-2 HT 1-0
Casa Pia
📅09/11/2025 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 4-0 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2025/2026

Benfica vs Casa Pia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
84%
1.18
Draw
10%
5.71
Away
6%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.15
Over 2.5
59%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.44
No
56%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.04
2-3 Goals
42%
1.85
4-5 Goals
26%
3.01
6+ Goals
11%
9.42
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1.37
1/2
2%
35.0
1/X
3%
29.5
X/1 EV+ ✗
39%
3.55
X/2
2%
27.0
X/X
4%
8.49
2/1
7%
27.0
2/2
2%
26.5
2/X
3%
35.0
Value flag · X/1 at 3.55 — our 39% vs market 22.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
84%
Home Win
80%
+4.9pp
10%
Draw
14%
-4.0pp
5%
Away Win
6%
-0.8pp
41%
Under 2.5
43%
-1.8pp
59%
Over 2.5
57%
+1.8pp
44%
BTTS Yes
37%
+7.4pp
56%
BTTS No
63%
-7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Benfica v Casa Pia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Benfica EU Bookmakers 85%
Head to Head
AWAY Casa Pia EU Bookmakers 9%
-2% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +16%
2.82/0.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/2.29
+13% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / -11%
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
421 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 220 · 70%
37.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.6
23.2 Crosses 8.9
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.3

Benfica vs Casa Pia Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Benfica
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Casa Pia
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.11 xG 0.64
67% Ball Possession 33%
19 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 3
570 Passes 240
88% Pass Accuracy 76%
43 Box Touches 11
26 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
25.01.2025 Casa Pia Casa Pia 3-1 HT 1-1 Benfica Benfica POR
17.08.2024 Benfica Benfica 3-0 HT 0-0 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
17.03.2024 Casa Pia Casa Pia 0-1 HT 0-0 Benfica Benfica POR
28.10.2023 Benfica Benfica 1-1 HT 1-0 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
04.02.2023 Benfica Benfica 3-0 HT 2-0 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
13.08.2022 Casa Pia Casa Pia 0-1 HT 0-0 Benfica Benfica POR

Benfica 2-2 Casa Pia — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Benfica
2-2
AWAY Casa Pia
2.22 xG 1.21
66% Ball Possession 34%
19 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
489 Passes 224
87% Pass Accuracy 77%
35 Box Touches 7
18 Crosses 7
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Benfica vs Casa Pia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Benfica and Casa Pia shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

This one beat our numbers. Benfica carried 84% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. On goals, over 2.5 goals (59%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

On the day, Benfica had 66% of the ball to Casa Pia's 34%, shots finished 19-7, expected goals 2.22 to 1.21.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Benfica had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Benfica and 0.67 for Casa Pia.

What was the final score of Benfica vs Casa Pia?

Benfica 2-2 Casa Pia in the Portugal - Premier League on 09/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Benfica vs Casa Pia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Benfica win the most likely single outcome at about 84%, with the full match-result split Benfica 84%, draw 10%, Casa Pia 5%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Benfica), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Benfica) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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