Casa Pia 3-1 Benfica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 25 Jan 2025

Casa Pia
3-1 HT 1-1
Benfica
📅25/01/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2024/2025

Casa Pia vs Benfica Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
5.91
Draw
23%
4.34
Away
51%
1.4
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.0
Over 2.5
51%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.03
No
53%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.54
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
25%
3.19
6+ Goals
9%
11.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.54 — our 26% vs market 22.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
13.6
1/2
5%
23.4
1/X
6%
22.1
X/1
9%
15.25
X/2
19%
3.72
X/X
8%
6.3
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
28%
1.65
2/X
8%
18.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
14%
+12.2pp
23%
Draw
20%
+3.1pp
51%
Away Win
67%
-15.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
46%
+3.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
54%
-3.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
45%
+1.9pp
53%
BTTS No
55%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Casa Pia v Benfica — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Casa Pia EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Benfica EU Bookmakers 71%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -20%
1.23/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.89/0.85
-25% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +6%
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
256 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 416 · 82%
12.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.0
14.9 Crosses 20.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1

Casa Pia vs Benfica Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Casa Pia
0W-1D-4L
AWAY Benfica
0.20 Avg Goals (FT) 1.80
0.51 xG 2.11
32% Ball Possession 68%
7 Total Shots 19
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 10
233 Passes 595
75% Pass Accuracy 88%
11 Box Touches 46
10 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
17.08.2024 Benfica Benfica 3-0 HT 0-0 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
17.03.2024 Casa Pia Casa Pia 0-1 HT 0-0 Benfica Benfica POR
28.10.2023 Benfica Benfica 1-1 HT 1-0 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
04.02.2023 Benfica Benfica 3-0 HT 2-0 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
13.08.2022 Casa Pia Casa Pia 0-1 HT 0-0 Benfica Benfica POR

Casa Pia 3-1 Benfica — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Casa Pia
3-1
AWAY Benfica
1.29 xG 2.12
39% Ball Possession 61%
8 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 9
273 Passes 443
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
10 Box Touches 29
10 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Casa Pia vs Benfica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Casa Pia beat Benfica 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Benfica at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Casa Pia had 39% of the ball to Benfica's 61%, shots finished 8-19, expected goals 1.29 to 2.12 — the balance of chances actually favoured Benfica.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Benfica led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.20 goals for Casa Pia and 1.80 for Benfica.

What was the final score of Casa Pia vs Benfica?

Casa Pia 3-1 Benfica in the Portugal - Premier League on 25/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Casa Pia vs Benfica?

Before kick-off our model rated an Benfica win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Casa Pia 26%, draw 23%, Benfica 51%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Benfica), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Benfica) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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