Sporting CP 2-0 Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 25 Jan 2025

Sporting CP
2-0 HT 1-0
Nacional
📅25/01/2025 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 4-0 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2024/2025

Sporting CP vs Nacional Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
66%
1.18
Draw
20%
7.13
Away
14%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.96
Over 2.5
54%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.9
No
58%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
6.55
2-3 Goals
40%
2.14
4-5 Goals
26%
2.41
6+ Goals
12%
4.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.31
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
5%
27.0
X/1 EV+ ✗
30%
3.84
X/2
5%
27.0
X/X
8%
11.1
2/1
7%
20.6
2/2
5%
22.1
2/X
8%
31.0
Value flag · X/1 at 3.84 — our 30% vs market 20.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
66%
Home Win
80%
-14.5pp
20%
Draw
11%
+8.7pp
14%
Away Win
8%
+5.8pp
46%
Under 2.5
30%
+15.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
70%
-15.5pp
42%
BTTS Yes
49%
-6.5pp
58%
BTTS No
51%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sporting CP v Nacional — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting CP EU Bookmakers 85%
Head to Head
AWAY Nacional EU Bookmakers 11%
+2% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +2%
2.42/0.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.98
+7% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +0%
62% Ball Possession 38%
18 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
461 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 235 · 71%
35.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.8
24.0 Crosses 13.1
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.7

Sporting CP vs Nacional Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting CP
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Nacional
3.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.85 xG 0.64
62% Ball Possession 38%
22 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
381 Passes 192
80% Pass Accuracy 68%
36 Box Touches 8
23 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
29.10.2024 Sporting CP Sporting CP 3-1 HT 0-0 Nacional Nacional PRLK
17.08.2024 Nacional Nacional 1-6 HT 1-2 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
01.05.2021 Sporting CP Sporting CP 2-0 HT 0-0 Nacional Nacional POR
08.01.2021 Nacional Nacional 0-2 HT 0-1 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
19.04.2019 Nacional Nacional 0-1 HT 0-0 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
16.12.2018 Sporting CP Sporting CP 5-2 HT 1-2 Nacional Nacional POR

Sporting CP 2-0 Nacional — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting CP
2-0
AWAY Nacional
1.25 xG 0.38
64% Ball Possession 36%
15 Total Shots 3
5 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 2
484 Passes 230
86% Pass Accuracy 73%
31 Box Touches 10
19 Crosses 6
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sporting CP vs Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting CP got the better of Nacional 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Sporting CP as the likeliest winner at 66%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Sporting CP had 64% of the ball to Nacional's 36%, shots finished 15-3, expected goals 1.25 to 0.38.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting CP had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 3.17 goals for Sporting CP and 0.67 for Nacional.

What was the final score of Sporting CP vs Nacional?

Sporting CP 2-0 Nacional in the Portugal - Premier League on 25/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting CP vs Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting CP win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split Sporting CP 66%, draw 20%, Nacional 14%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting CP), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sporting CP) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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