Farense 1-2 Rio Ave — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 25 Jan 2025

📅25/01/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.27
Draw
26%
3.04
Away
32%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.68
Over 2.5
45%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.68
2-3 Goals
42%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
4.08
6+ Goals
9%
19.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
3.43
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
12.85
X/1
11%
5.19
X/2
13%
6.26
X/X
9%
4.03
2/1
7%
29.5
2/2
13%
4.6
2/X
9%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
40%
+1.7pp
26%
Draw
29%
-3.0pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+1.3pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.5pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.1pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Farense EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Rio Ave EU Bookmakers 34%
+0% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -3%
1.40/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.46
-16% / +52% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +13%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
322 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 77%
19.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.2
22.7 Crosses 16.5
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Farense
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Rio Ave
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.96 xG 1.42
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
282 Passes 322
76% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 23
24 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.08.2024 Rio Ave Rio Ave 1-0 HT 1-0 Farense Farense POR
16.03.2024 Farense Farense 1-1 HT 1-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR
29.10.2023 Rio Ave Rio Ave 3-4 HT 2-2 Farense Farense POR
13.12.2022 Rio Ave Rio Ave 2-1 HT 1-0 Farense Farense PORLC
23.01.2022 Rio Ave Rio Ave 2-1 HT 2-1 Farense Farense POR2
15.08.2021 Farense Farense 1-1 HT 0-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Farense
1-2
AWAY Rio Ave
2.07 xG 1.52
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 2
283 Passes 239
78% Pass Accuracy 74%
32 Box Touches 13
28 Crosses 11
5 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Farense vs Rio Ave
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rio Ave nicked a narrow win over Farense 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Farense at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Farense had 54% of the ball to Rio Ave's 46%, shots finished 15-9, expected goals 2.07 to 1.52 — on chances, Farense could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rio Ave led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Farense and 1.67 for Rio Ave.

What was the final score of Farense vs Rio Ave?

Farense 1-2 Rio Ave in the Portugal - Premier League on 25/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Farense vs Rio Ave?

Before kick-off our model rated a Farense win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Farense 42%, draw 26%, Rio Ave 32%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Farense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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